Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 2, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 114 | 113 | 232 |
| STL | 216 | 313 | 15 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:44STLNoel AcciariAssists: Justin Faulk, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 16:07STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 1:02STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 4:52STLBrayden SchennAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 6:43ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 8:44STLTorey KrugPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 8:41ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Cam Fowler, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 15:28STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:12ANAAdam Henrique: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:52STLCalle Rosen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:42ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:41STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:03STLNoel Acciari: Interference2 min
- P3 7:55STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:15ANABrett Leason: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:15STLAlexey Toropchenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:55ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Lundeström – Regenda5:42
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish4:43
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras10:09
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström3:32
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Fowler8:15
xG 0.52–0.37 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- White – Strand10:52
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 6–3goals 0–2
- Klingberg – Benoit8:32
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barbashev – Acciari11:57
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad9:51
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:23
xG 0.65–0.61 (52%)attempts 9–15goals 3–0
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov8:44
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:33
xG 0.95–0.48 (66%)attempts 15–18goals 4–0
- Rosen – Tucker14:20
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mikkola14:09
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).