Sat, Nov 19, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 210 | 010 | 229 |
| DAL | 013 | 213 | 39 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:30NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Alexander Romanov, Oliver Wahlstrom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:57DALRadek FaksaAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 14:19NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:59DALMason MarchmentAssists: Jamie Benn, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 8:17DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 16:27DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:39DALJani HakanpääENAssists: Jake Oettinger, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:56NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:01NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:31DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:02DALJason Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:07DALMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:12DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:52NYIScott Mayfield: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Palmieri – Pageau9:35
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:33
xG 0.05–0.39 (11%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:46
xG 0.16–0.55 (23%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier8:48
xG 0.28–0.85 (25%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech3:29
xG 0.23–0.06 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Aho10:03
xG 0.25–0.32 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov13:55
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Marchment6:11
xG 0.66–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Dellandrea – Kiviranta – Johnston5:02
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Robertson – Johnston5:03
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Blümel3:29
xG 0.07–0.16 (33%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell12:03
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen11:48
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Lundkvist6:40
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).