Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 018 | 112 | 16 | 13 | 339 |
| NSH | 112 | 08 | 111 | 01 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Juuso Parssinen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:25TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brayden Point, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 5:04NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 16:39TBLAlex KillornAssists: Ian Cole, Nikita Kucherov · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 2:36TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:39TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 2:09TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:17TBLNick Paul: Kneeing2 min
- P2 3:44NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:26NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:26TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:22NSHMichael McCarron: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:31TBLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 8:17NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:16TBLZach Bogosian: Kneeing2 min
- P3 17:04NSHRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:22NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel11:50
xG 0.92–0.36 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton5:29
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Balcers6:10
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul8:25
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Fleury5:22
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hedman5:30
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Sergachev9:09
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Tolvanen – Smith5:40
xG 0.92–0.06 (94%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Parssinen9:30
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sissons – McCarron – Jeannot8:16
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Niederreiter8:13
xG 0.09–0.97 (8%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Fabbro6:48
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier8:37
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Josi – Lauzon2:27
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).