Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 113 | 112 | 00 | 334 |
| EDM | 110 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Murray · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:22VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Shea Theodore, Brett Howden · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:09VGKMark StoneUnassisted · Snap, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 10:29EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 0:38EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 11:33VGKMark StoneAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:17EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.37 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:04EDMDylan Holloway: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:15EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:03VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:09EDMRyan Murray: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 6:39EDMEvan Bouchard: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:24VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min
- P2 19:01VGKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Eichel9:34
xG 0.90–0.18 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden10:26
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:27
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Kessel – Amadio – Cotter6:59
xG 0.10–0.98 (9%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo13:48
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud13:22
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Janmark – McDavid13:06
xG 1.13–0.67 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Puljujarvi – Kostin – McLeod7:38
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Foegele12:46
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 6–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse13:48
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kulak – Bouchard12:05
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:03
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).