Sun, Nov 20, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 118 | 116 | 116 | 350 |
| CBJ | 14 | 112 | 37 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:21CBJEgor ChinakhovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:53CBJKent JohnsonPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Marcus Bjork · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 16:38FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Gustav Forsling, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 1:57CBJSean KuralySHAssists: Eric Robinson, Andrew Peeke · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 7:55CBJJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 18:11CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Emil Bemstrom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 19:05FLAColin WhiteAssists: Nick Cousins, Josh Mahura · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:04CBJMarcus Bjork: Holding2 min
- P1 17:57CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:49FLARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:33CBJMathieu Olivier: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:31FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen7:47
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk5:03
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Staal – Hornqvist – Lomberg3:55
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart8:00
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:24
xG 0.72–0.35 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Montour – Forsling2:37
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour12:09
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Gaunce – Bemstrom – Johnson4:11
xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Fix-Wolansky – Chinakhov – Sillinger8:34
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson11:35
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Chinakhov – Johnson – Sillinger4:04
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Bayreuther11:32
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Bjork14:36
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Christiansen14:05
xG 0.50–1.00 (33%)attempts 7–28goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).