Mon, Nov 21, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 011 | 38 | 01 | 327 |
| WPG | 18 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:34WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Blake Wheeler, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:44WPGMichael EyssimontAssists: David Gustafsson, Jansen Harkins · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 3:56WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 15:12CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 16:52CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Brent Burns, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:21CARMartin NecasAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 2:10WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:09CARBrett Pesce: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:25WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:45WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:07CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:36CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Aho – Necas5:48
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis5:05
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Noesen – Svechnikov – Drury2:20
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook13:16
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:47
xG 0.78–0.63 (55%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:59
xG 0.72–0.77 (48%)attempts 29–8goals 0–2
- de Haan – Chatfield9:45
xG 0.20–0.55 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Dubois – Perfetti9:37
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Harkins – Eyssimont – Gustafsson5:05
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby7:54
xG 0.05–0.21 (21%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Scheifele – Connor13:51
xG 0.47–0.85 (35%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk14:46
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Samberg – Heinola10:40
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Dillon – Schmidt16:50
xG 0.37–0.59 (39%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).