Mon, Nov 21, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Islanders 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 08 | 17 | 12 | 324 |
| TOR | 09 | 213 | 010 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:21NYINoah DobsonAssists: Sebastian Aho, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 4:49TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 17:02NYIJosh BaileyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:56NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:55TORJordie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:41NYIAlexander Romanov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:37NYIScott Mayfield: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:37TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:37TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:37NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:52NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:52TORRasmus Sandin: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:52NYIMatt Martin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:16
xG 0.76–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier7:51
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom3:15
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:20
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Romanov18:43
xG 1.19–0.38 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Pelech – Dobson2:56
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Pulock – Aho2:33
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Engvall – Holmberg7:31
xG 0.94–0.53 (64%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner11:50
xG 0.77–0.62 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews13:57
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf8:31
xG 0.09–0.42 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin10:29
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Giordano – Liljegren4:08
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Holl – Sandin2:45
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).