Mon, Nov 21, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 115 | 07 | 06 | 128 |
| STL | 19 | 011 | 27 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11STLNoel AcciariAssists: Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:42ANACam FowlerAssists: Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 15:47STLJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:41STLNoel AcciariENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:17ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51ANASimon Benoit: Holding2 min
- P3 5:11STLNick Leddy: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:19STLBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:22ANADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Zegras10:30
xG 1.03–0.24 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Leason – McTavish10:20
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carrick – Terry – Lundeström2:30
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Carrick – Vatrano – Lundeström2:10
xG 0.01–0.26 (2%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Klingberg7:11
xG 0.62–0.26 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Klingberg2:06
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – White3:22
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barbashev – Acciari12:39
xG 1.02–0.31 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas10:18
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov6:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad10:14
xG 0.41–0.98 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRosen – Tucker11:12
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Mikkola16:56
xG 0.95–1.05 (48%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko17:13
xG 0.70–0.84 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).