Mon, Nov 21, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 08 | 017 | 138 |
| SJS | 13 | 321 | 17 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22SJSNoah GregorAssists: Luke Kunin, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:14OTTTim StützleAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:18SJSTimo MeierGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 4:53SJSMatt NietoAssists: Matt Benning, Alexander Barabanov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 15:56SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Luke Kunin, Logan Couture · Deflected, 0.25 xG1–4
- P3 19:01SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Jaycob Megna, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:04OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:08SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:22OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:22SJSNick Cicek: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:01OTTTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:05SJSErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:48OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle12:22
xG 0.92–0.33 (74%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Watson – Motte – Pinto3:05
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Pinto6:31
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gambrell – Kastelic – Kelly4:03
xG 0.04–0.15 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub14:11
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub2:55
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:00
xG 0.57–0.72 (44%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Meier12:17
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich6:11
xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Kunin – Gregor7:33
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov12:12
xG 0.10–0.93 (10%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning13:17
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Megna15:58
xG 0.77–0.97 (44%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Cicek10:07
xG 0.03–0.44 (6%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).