Tue, Nov 22, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 7, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 39 | 114 | 315 | 738 |
| MTL | 115 | 18 | 08 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 0:52BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 2:13BUFAlex TuchPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 2:57MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Kaiden Guhle, David Savard · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 11:21BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.20 xG4–1
- P2 13:57MTLSean MonahanAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 3:48BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 6:39BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–2
- P3 14:26BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.10 xG7–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:42MTLMichael Pezzetta: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 1:42BUFTyson Jost: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:42MTLChris Wideman: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:28BUFMattias Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P1 8:18BUFTage Thompson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:53BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:08MTLKaiden Guhle: Interference2 min
- P2 9:08MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:08BUFJJ Peterka: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:33MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:33BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:17BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P3 1:14MTLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:36BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:24MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka9:45
xG 1.08–0.25 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson7:58
xG 0.99–0.21 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 3–0
- Girgensons – Asplund – Jost3:55
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Olofsson – Mittelstadt8:44
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power11:34
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin7:19
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin9:42
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Pezzetta5:49
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield9:44
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský6:15
xG 0.03–0.33 (8%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Anderson – Monahan6:44
xG 0.46–0.83 (36%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Harris10:11
xG 0.41–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Matheson11:14
xG 0.51–0.74 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Savard – Guhle12:52
xG 0.11–1.17 (9%)attempts 5–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).