Wed, Nov 23, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 117 | 08 | 01 | 2 | 134 |
| PIT | 110 | 014 | 014 | 01 | 3 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09PITJan RuttaAssists: Jeff Carter, Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:37CGYDillon DubeAssists: Chris Tanev, Dennis Gilbert · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Rickard Rakell scored
- 2. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. CGY Rasmus Andersson scored
- 5. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 6. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
- 7. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:13PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P1 13:01CGYNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:57CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:55PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:21PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:48CGYElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lewis – Lucic – Rooney9:01
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka11:13
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau11:44
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube9:12
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar2:36
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Tanev – Zadorov4:19
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin3:09
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – McGinn – Heinen9:20
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust13:40
xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:15
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling6:30
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson16:38
xG 0.98–0.49 (67%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Petry – Joseph12:57
xG 0.75–0.53 (58%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta12:06
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).