Wed, Nov 23, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 2, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 115 | 113 | 236 |
| BUF | 110 | 313 | 29 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:53STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 2:53BUFDylan CozensAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 5:57BUFVictor OlofssonPPGWGAssists: Owen Power, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 13:01BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 12:44BUFJack QuinnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 18:43BUFJack QuinnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–6
- P3 18:56STLBrayden SchennAssists: Noel Acciari, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:24STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:36BUFCasey Mittelstadt: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:49STLJordan Kyrou: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:19STLNick Leddy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:28BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00STLNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barbashev – Acciari10:44
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- O'Reilly – Kyrou – Alexandrov4:15
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov2:36
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas6:18
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:38
xG 1.58–0.64 (71%)attempts 27–13goals 0–3
- Mikkola – Rosen12:42
xG 0.43–0.58 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko15:44
xG 0.40–0.95 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka8:59
xG 0.89–0.48 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Olofsson – Mittelstadt10:54
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:29
xG 0.47–0.68 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Jost – Krebs7:44
xG 0.25–0.57 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power2:45
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin12:31
xG 0.97–0.49 (66%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin6:36
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).