Wed, Nov 23, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 04 | 06 | 220 |
| NJD | 05 | 016 | 114 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 14:03TORPontus HolmbergGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 14:52NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Fabian Zetterlund · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:35NJDTomas Tatar: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 17:15NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:18TORAlexander Kerfoot: Holding2 min
- P2 10:06TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:21NJDYegor Sharangovich: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:25TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:24NJDDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Marner – Robertson7:33
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Holmberg5:35
xG 0.23–0.09 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews10:27
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Engvall – Aston-Reese – Kampf8:16
xG 0.09–0.33 (21%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin12:33
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Holl – Sandin2:20
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Holl – Hollowell2:39
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Bratt – Hischier3:44
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes4:02
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Sharangovich – Mercer2:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer2:30
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler16:35
xG 0.98–0.62 (61%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Graves – Marino12:12
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Severson7:38
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).