Wed, Nov 23, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 1, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 113 | 010 | 129 |
| MIN | 116 | 212 | 311 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20MINMason ShawAssists: Mathew Dumba, Nic Petan · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:50MINCalen AddisonGWGAssists: Jon Merrill, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 3:58MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Mathew Dumba, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 14:18WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Josh Morrissey, Michael Eyssimont · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 0:28MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 6:51MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.24 xG1–5
- P3 9:46MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:18WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:15WPGMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:15MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:28MINBrandon Duhaime: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:28WPGBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:41WPGCole Perfetti: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:49MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min
- P3 3:13WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P3 9:14WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:46WPGMichael Eyssimont: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 12:08MINMason Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:34MINCalen Addison: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:34WPGJansen Harkins: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Connor – Dubois4:43
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Harkins – Eyssimont – Gustafsson6:46
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti3:13
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby5:09
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Schmidt14:31
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk14:12
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
- Samberg – Heinola9:43
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime7:03
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Petan – Shaw – Dewar5:56
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel11:07
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Boldy7:03
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba11:29
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Merrill – Addison11:34
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Merrill – Dumba2:53
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).