Wed, Nov 23, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Edmonton Oilers 0, New York Islanders 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 017 | 023 | 049 |
| NYI | 012 | 311 | 08 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:33NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Pelech · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:39NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 16:56NYISebastian AhoAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:27EDMLeon Draisaitl: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:11NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:21EDMTyson Barrie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:49NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:59NYIAlexander Romanov: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:58NYICasey Cizikas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:54NYIMathew Barzal: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Ryan – Kostin3:02
xG 0.41–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Foegele – McDavid10:42
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi10:35
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Janmark – Kostin – McLeod4:41
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse19:24
xG 1.15–0.31 (79%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Barrie – Niemelainen6:21
xG 0.27–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Barrie – Kulak4:17
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Barzal – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom9:35
xG 0.17–0.19 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:25
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:12
xG 0.46–1.12 (29%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Parise – Bailey – Pageau9:03
xG 0.26–1.00 (21%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson11:49
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Pulock – Romanov3:06
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:32
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).