Wed, Nov 23, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
San Jose Sharks 5, Seattle Kraken 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 28 | 16 | 212 | 526 |
| SEA | 110 | 311 | 46 | 827 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Nick Cicek, Matt Nieto · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:44SEAAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:53SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 5:52SEAVince DunnAssists: Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 7:02SEARyan DonatoAssists: Daniel Sprong, Morgan Geekie · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 10:11SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Justin Schultz, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 13:39SJSTimo MeierAssists: Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 1:00SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Matt Benning, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 2:48SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 3:47SEAJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.10 xG4–6
- P3 8:58SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–6
- P3 15:16SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jared McCann, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–7
- P3 19:25SEAJaden SchwartzENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:40SEARyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:35SJSAlexander Barabanov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:35SJSMatt Benning: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:07SEABrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:07SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:34SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:59SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Nieto – Barabanov10:19
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier12:34
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich6:15
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
- Bonino – Kunin – Gregor9:56
xG 0.27–0.58 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna15:34
xG 0.74–0.63 (54%)attempts 21–9goals 1–2
- Vlasic – Benning13:05
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Cicek12:41
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers9:15
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Donato – Sprong – Geekie6:24
xG 0.28–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tanev9:05
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg10:11
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:31
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 19–18goals 5–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak13:53
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Soucy – Borgen11:42
xG 0.42–0.91 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).