Fri, Nov 25, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 216 | 06 | 011 | 03 | 236 |
| BOS | 09 | 113 | 116 | 13 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34CARStefan NoesenPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 15:05CARJesperi KotkaniemiPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Brett Pesce · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 19:29BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 10:27BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Pavel Zacha, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:19BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:59BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:24BOSCraig Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:38BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:22CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52CARJack Drury: Interference2 min
- P2 2:06CARJack Drury: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:50BOSCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:32BOSConnor Clifton: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 8:26CARJordan Staal: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:59CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 2:56CARAndrei Svechnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stepan – Noesen3:55
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Drury2:03
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov – Jarvis2:29
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Martinook – Aho – Necas7:56
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce14:42
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Burns – Slavin15:16
xG 0.05–0.61 (7%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield9:21
xG 0.07–0.65 (9%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Hall3:50
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha10:14
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:48
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Greer3:43
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy10:17
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Clifton8:57
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – Carlo5:06
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).