Fri, Nov 25, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 29 | 212 | 07 | 428 |
| VGK | 29 | 07 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38SEARyan DonatoAssists: Adam Larsson, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 8:00SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Adam Larsson, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 10:46VGKNicolas RoyPPAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P1 12:50VGKPhil KesselAssists: Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 5:20SEAAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 18:46SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:02VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P1 8:53SEAJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:41VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg13:03
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:59
xG 0.61–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Donato – Sprong – Geekie5:16
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tanev8:30
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak14:13
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn18:58
xG 0.81–0.69 (54%)attempts 24–18goals 2–0
- Soucy – Borgen13:10
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Stone – Eichel – Cotter2:21
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Amadio – Cotter4:22
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Stone – Stephenson – Eichel13:09
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:10
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud7:02
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Theodore – Hague4:45
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Martinez – Theodore4:02
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).