Fri, Nov 25, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 111 | 16 | 11 | 528 |
| DAL | 214 | 08 | 219 | 00 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nate Schmidt · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 1:58DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Ty Dellandrea · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 5:46WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Adam Lowry, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 8:27DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 8:04WPGAdam LowryAssists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 11:21WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 17:48DALJason RobertsonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:40DALJason RobertsonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 0:34WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:47WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34WPGSaku Maenalanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:27DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:57DALLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:17WPGAxel Jonsson-Fjallby: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:41WPGNate Schmidt: Interference2 min
- P3 17:09DALRoope Hintz: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:09WPGNeal Pionk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:40WPGMark Scheifele: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Gustafsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti9:58
xG 1.05–0.64 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Eyssimont7:05
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Connor – Dubois – Jonsson-Fjallby2:53
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson3:55
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schmidt – Samberg9:15
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Dillon – Samberg2:13
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk14:24
xG 0.59–0.67 (47%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:33
xG 0.92–0.51 (64%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Seguin – Gurianov – Marchment8:38
xG 0.34–0.20 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston10:03
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta8:09
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hakanpää6:38
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist5:45
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist3:52
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).