Sat, Nov 26, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 14 | 115 | 09 | 228 |
| NYI | 16 | 18 | 39 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33NYIAdam PelechAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 15:27PHILukas SedlakAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:28PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Kevin Hayes, Lukas Sedlak · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 16:38NYIZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 2:57NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 3:19NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 11:57NYIZach ParisePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P2 5:48NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42PHIIvan Provorov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P3 10:00PHINicolas Deslauriers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:44NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:44PHITony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:44PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44NYIScott Mayfield: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:44PHINicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:44PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Sedlak – Farabee8:37
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Bellows – Tippett – Frost10:23
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Willman – Laczynski6:55
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – MacEwen – Cates9:40
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim15:11
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Braun – Seeler11:18
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- DeAngelo – Provorov14:46
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:56
xG 0.71–0.37 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom4:21
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Barzal – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom5:28
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom3:49
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock14:54
xG 0.72–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 3–0
- Mayfield – Aho2:13
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson12:33
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).