Tue, Jan 17, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 015 | 116 | 140 |
| NSH | 012 | 211 | 05 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:42NSHCody GlassAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 16:55NSHYakov TreninGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 9:01CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:19NSHTommy Novak: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:02CBJAndrew Peeke: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:19CBJKirill Marchenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:59NSHMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:00NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:15CBJTim Berni: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBemstrom – Marchenko – Sillinger3:20
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Marchenko – Sillinger4:34
xG 0.34–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine9:14
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Johnson3:22
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Boqvist10:40
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Gavrikov3:04
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Peeke – Blankenburg9:49
xG 0.70–0.61 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Forsberg – Glass10:04
xG 1.20–0.32 (79%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot6:35
xG 0.89–0.73 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot2:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Forsberg – Parssinen2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi12:37
xG 1.28–0.46 (74%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Lauzon2:00
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:16
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).