Sat, Nov 26, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 016 | 120 | 06 | 142 |
| COL | 210 | 110 | 116 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05COLNathan MacKinnonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:51COLJosh MansonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 8:13DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:43COLDryden HuntAssists: Alex Newhook, Martin Kaut · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 7:01COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Logan O'Connor, Josh Manson · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:37DALNils Lundkvist: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:50COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 7:42COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:10COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:10COLMartin Kaut: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:31COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:44DALRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:20DALMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:40DALLuke Glendening: Instigator2 min
- P3 18:40DALLuke Glendening: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40COLJacob MacDonald: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40DALLuke Glendening: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:40DALLuke Glendening: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Faksa – Kiviranta7:20
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston6:42
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:29
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Seguin – Gurianov – Marchment11:49
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lundkvist2:02
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen12:00
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Suter – Lundkvist7:34
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHunt – Kaut – Newhook5:38
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:22
xG 0.55–0.50 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor7:53
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Megna – Blidh – Ranta3:01
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – MacDonald7:23
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar11:19
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard3:00
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).