Sat, Nov 26, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 5, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 213 | 312 | 011 | 536 |
| VGK | 07 | 07 | 113 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:57VANJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Andrei Kuzmenko · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 11:33VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 13:19VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Nils Aman, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 19:58VANBo HorvatAssists: J.T. Miller, Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.20 xG5–0
- P3 16:43VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:12VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:18VANKyle Burroughs: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:07VGKPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:52VGKNicolas Roy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:26VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:48VGKReilly Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:36VGKJonathan Marchessault: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:36VANConor Garland: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:36VANConor Garland: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:36VANConor Garland: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:23VANDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:23VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko9:54
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Hoglander9:46
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Boeser – Garland – Dries5:43
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Aman9:06
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Bear11:02
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Myers – Burroughs15:46
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes14:37
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:28
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Leschyshyn6:58
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Eichel10:25
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Kessel – Roy – Cotter9:11
xG 0.07–0.84 (8%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo14:13
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Theodore – Hague2:14
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore12:14
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).