Mon, Nov 28, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 29 | 017 | 09 | 01 | 2 | 336 |
| CBJ | 07 | 114 | 16 | 01 | 1 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:59VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:55VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 13:50CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Vladislav Gavrikov · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 12:11CBJBoone JennerAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.30 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Gustav Nyquist scored
- 2. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
- 3. CBJ Egor Chinakhov stopped
- 4. CBJ Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 5. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
- 6. CBJ Kent Johnson stopped
- 7. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 8. CBJ Boone Jenner stopped
- 9. VGK Mark Stone stopped
- 10. CBJ Cole Sillinger stopped
- 11. VGK Phil Kessel stopped
- 12. CBJ Trey Fix-Wolansky stopped
- 13. VGK Paul Cotter scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:37CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min
- P1 8:40VGKAlec Martinez: Interference2 min
- P2 1:06CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
- P2 18:16VGKKeegan Kolesar: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:37CBJEgor Chinakhov: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:56CBJEgor Chinakhov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Leschyshyn8:05
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:38
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – Roy – Cotter8:00
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Eichel8:24
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore12:41
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Theodore – Hague3:16
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Martinez – Hutton3:11
xG 0.03–0.01 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Gaudreau – Jenner13:04
xG 0.96–0.11 (90%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Roslovic – Fix-Wolansky – Johnson8:37
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Meyer – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:43
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Robinson – Foudy11:25
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Bayreuther8:08
xG 1.05–0.26 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Gavrikov – Bjork12:21
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Peeke5:59
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).