Mon, Nov 28, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 09 | 29 | 00 | 328 |
| EDM | 014 | 111 | 214 | 11 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Nick Cousins, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 10:35EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 5:18EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Zach Hyman, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 10:58FLAAnton LundellAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 15:16FLABrandon MontourPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:55EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 0:22EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:27FLARadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P1 13:27FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 4:07EDMBrad Malone: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:48FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:45FLASam Bennett: Holding2 min
- P3 14:38EDMCody Ceci: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:16EDMDevin Shore: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 16:18FLARyan Lomberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Tkachuk11:07
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Hornqvist – Lomberg6:15
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Lundell9:17
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- White – Heponiemi – Luostarinen6:54
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura10:53
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Staal – Montour12:30
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling3:19
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestShore – Ryan – Kostin6:13
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi5:23
xG 0.07–0.07 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Hamblin – Holloway6:41
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark5:25
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak13:56
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Bouchard – Broberg9:17
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse16:29
xG 0.68–0.92 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).