Tue, Nov 29, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 08 | 07 | 124 |
| PHI | 212 | 09 | 112 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12NYINoah DobsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 4:37PHITravis SanheimSHAssists: Noah Cates, Lukas Sedlak · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 9:45PHIKevin HayesGWGAssists: Lukas Sedlak · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:26PHIKevin HayesENAssists: Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:07NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 0:08PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:08NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:10PHIKieffer Bellows: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:47PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 11:21NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00NYIAdam Pelech: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHILukas Sedlak: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:37PHIMax Willman: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:26NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P3 14:13PHIOwen Tippett: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBarzal – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom7:25
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Johnston2:33
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston4:11
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Cizikas – Pageau2:02
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Romanov11:38
xG 0.82–0.21 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Aho4:00
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson3:44
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Sedlak – Farabee9:24
xG 0.39–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Willman – Bellows – Laczynski5:47
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Tippett – Frost5:57
xG 0.37–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Bellows – Tippett – Frost3:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim13:31
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Seeler – Zamula10:08
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov14:15
xG 0.45–0.77 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).