Tue, Nov 29, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 0, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 016 | 015 | 040 |
| WPG | 14 | 210 | 29 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:46WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Cole Perfetti · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 13:07WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 1:22WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 16:09WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:58COLJean-Luc Foudy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:33WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P2 13:29WPGJosh Morrissey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:58WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:59COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:41COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:41WPGDavid Gustafsson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:23
xG 0.98–0.44 (69%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor7:11
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Megna – Blidh – Hunt6:23
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Newhook – Foudy8:19
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:03
xG 1.04–0.14 (88%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard13:09
xG 0.49–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Toews – Girard3:31
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti13:02
xG 1.08–0.35 (76%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- Connor – Dubois – Jonsson-Fjallby3:07
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Barron2:39
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Barron8:38
xG 0.04–0.12 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk16:57
xG 0.92–0.37 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:07
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Samberg10:22
xG 0.30–1.10 (21%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).