Wed, Nov 30, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 113 | 116 | 336 |
| OTT | 013 | 111 | 011 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:34NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 10:52NYRBarclay GoodrowGWGAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Sammy Blais · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 13:47OTTShane PintoAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 12:59NYRChris KreiderAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:25OTTMathieu Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:25NYRK'Andre Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:51NYRVitali Kravtsov: Holding2 min
- P2 14:29NYRJulien Gauthier: Interference2 min
- P3 1:40OTTAlex DeBrincat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:58OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:30NYRFilip Chytil: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Kravtsov – Lafrenière8:02
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Blais – Gauthier6:32
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey10:34
xG 0.97–1.11 (47%)attempts 20–12goals 2–0
- Panarin – Chytil – Kakko11:25
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:08
xG 1.65–0.34 (83%)attempts 25–9goals 3–0
- Trouba – Jones11:45
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Miller – Schneider14:30
xG 0.35–1.24 (22%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto10:59
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly6:10
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Motte – Joseph7:53
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle12:10
xG 0.93–1.17 (44%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson12:31
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Holden – Brannstrom10:04
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub16:49
xG 0.30–1.39 (18%)attempts 5–28goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).