Wed, Nov 30, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 014 | 211 | 316 | 541 |
| CHI | 06 | 17 | 312 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:54EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:48EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 14:33CHIBoris KatchoukAssists: Jack Johnson, MacKenzie Entwistle · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 1:18EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 10:00EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 12:37CHIMax DomiPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 12:56CHIMacKenzie EntwistleAssists: Reese Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 15:21EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Slap, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 18:49CHIMax DomiPPAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:46EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:03CHIJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:43CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:58CHISeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 16:01EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:21EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:30CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 11:34EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 15:25EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid17:02
xG 2.02–0.18 (92%)attempts 23–6goals 3–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Puljujarvi8:00
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Shore – Ryan – Benson3:17
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Malone – Hamblin – Holloway3:47
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse18:21
xG 1.36–0.28 (83%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Bouchard – Broberg8:55
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Barrie – Kulak11:10
xG 0.55–0.84 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Raddysh – Kurashev10:36
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson4:43
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 2–0
- Toews – Kane – Athanasiou10:06
xG 0.05–0.79 (6%)attempts 7–11goals 0–3
- Blackwell – Khaira – Dickinson10:01
xG 0.33–1.19 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones7:47
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Roos2:29
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Roos6:37
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).