Thu, Dec 1, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 14 | 16 | 111 | 321 |
| MIN | 06 | 313 | 211 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:17EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:51MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 4:22EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 10:53MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 13:59MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Nic Petan, Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 3:13MINSam SteelGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 11:48MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Mathew Dumba, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 19:56EDMKlim KostinAssists: Devin Shore, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:17MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:23MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:15EDMCody Ceci: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:08EDMMattias Janmark: Interference2 min
- P2 10:46EDMMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54MINNic Petan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid12:14
xG 0.59–0.63 (48%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Puljujarvi10:36
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Malone – Hamblin – Holloway5:28
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Shore – Ryan – Kostin10:57
xG 0.16–0.73 (18%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bouchard – Broberg11:54
xG 0.31–0.40 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Barrie – Kulak14:18
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Ceci – Nurse18:13
xG 0.28–0.92 (23%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel12:12
xG 0.99–0.21 (82%)attempts 19–6goals 2–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:29
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Petan – Gaudreau – Boldy10:13
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar7:55
xG 0.05–0.28 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba20:15
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Merrill – Addison12:19
xG 0.85–0.38 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton14:59
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).