Thu, Dec 1, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 0, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 010 | 09 | 031 |
| DAL | 110 | 216 | 215 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:43DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 11:09DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.28 xG0–3
- P3 1:23DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 11:23DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jani Hakanpää · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:28DALJani Hakanpää: Delaying game2 min
- P1 12:55ANARyan Strome: Holding2 min
- P1 19:34ANASimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:34DALMason Marchment: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:34DALMason Marchment: Instigator2 min
- P1 19:34DALMason Marchment: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 6:20ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:14ANATrevor Zegras: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:24DALDenis Gurianov: Holding2 min
- P3 1:09ANASimon Benoit: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:31ANACam Fowler: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Strome – Terry3:05
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Leason – Zegras2:06
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Leason – McTavish6:41
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Lundeström4:00
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Fowler11:24
xG 0.61–0.79 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Vaakanainen2:14
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Benoit14:35
xG 0.07–0.75 (8%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:55
xG 1.16–0.33 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:03
xG 0.93–0.12 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Kiviranta6:58
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Marchment11:41
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen16:23
xG 1.06–0.26 (80%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Hanley12:05
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell13:03
xG 0.87–0.98 (47%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).