Fri, Dec 2, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Nashville Predators 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 19 | 27 | 423 |
| NYI | 09 | 018 | 122 | 149 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:18NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 8:22NSHRoman JosiPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 11:06NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 18:47NSHMatt DucheneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
- P3 19:23NSHMikael GranlundENAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:12NSHJeremy Lauzon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:01NYICole Bardreau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:02NSHTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:26NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:26NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 7:05NSHJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:07NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:14NYISebastian Aho: Holding2 min
- P3 10:56NSHMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – McCarron – Trenin7:42
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Sissons – Jeannot7:01
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Smith10:14
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Parssinen10:01
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier14:31
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro9:52
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Lauzon2:13
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier12:32
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Parise – Bailey – Pageau9:04
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Bardreau3:31
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Barzal – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom8:17
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson13:53
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock15:38
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Romanov12:56
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).