Sat, Dec 3, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 210 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 433 |
| MIN | 211 | 016 | 220 | 02 | 2 | 549 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37MINCalen AddisonAssists: Marcus Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:13ANARyan StromeAssists: Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:04MINConnor DewarAssists: Ryan Reaves, Mason Shaw · Poke, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:43ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:00ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Troy Terry, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 5:26MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Calen Addison, Matt Boldy · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 10:36ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 17:25MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.12 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. ANA Trevor Zegras scored
- 2. MIN Kirill Kaprizov scored
- 3. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 4. ANA Mason McTavish stopped
- 5. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 6. ANA Ryan Strome stopped
Penalties (8)
- P2 10:09MINJon Merrill: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:07ANASimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:34ANABrett Leason: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:26ANAJohn Gibson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:18MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- OT 3:52MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:50ANAJohn Gibson: Puck thrown forward goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJones – Leason – McTavish11:21
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Regenda7:53
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras12:23
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Grant – Silfverberg – Carrick4:50
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Beaulieu10:48
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:23
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Benoit17:01
xG 0.24–0.88 (22%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel16:52
xG 1.79–0.31 (85%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:48
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:48
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Petan – Gaudreau – Boldy9:02
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba19:55
xG 1.97–0.33 (86%)attempts 33–12goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon2:42
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dumba – Middleton2:06
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).