Sat, Dec 3, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 014 | 05 | 16 | 125 |
| BOS | 213 | 115 | 212 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:49BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 18:51BOSTrent FredericGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 4:48BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.21 xG0–3
- P3 6:32COLAndrew CoglianoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 15:32BOSTrent FredericAssists: Taylor Hall, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 15:42BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Derek Forbort, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:07COLJean-Luc Foudy: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:20COLDryden Hunt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:24COLAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:24BOSNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:24BOSNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:38BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 17:09COLJacob MacDonald: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:13COLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:25COLJacob MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 4:00BOSNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:16COLJean-Luc Foudy: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:07BOSA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Newhook2:47
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Newhook – Foudy2:27
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Megna – Blidh – Hunt3:51
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Compher – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:06
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar3:41
xG 0.49–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Englund4:30
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Englund – MacDonald5:37
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:10
xG 1.16–0.49 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha9:49
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic6:44
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Greer6:22
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton8:36
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo11:19
xG 0.80–0.23 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy15:28
xG 1.00–0.72 (58%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).