Sat, Dec 3, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 213 | 012 | 333 |
| EDM | 04 | 412 | 16 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:37MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:25EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:27EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:36EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 13:26MTLEvgenii DadonovAssists: Joel Armia, Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 16:38MTLArber XhekajPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 19:55EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 14:40EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:20EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:09MTLArber Xhekaj: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:42MTLJoel Edmundson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:08MTLKirby Dach: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:20MTLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P2 5:20MTLJoel Edmundson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 8:55MTLNick Suzuki: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 14:39EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:28EDMDarnell Nurse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Armia – Dvorak10:28
xG 0.76–0.22 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield11:35
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Slafkovský11:40
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Evans – Pitlick – Pezzetta4:52
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle3:38
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj10:24
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson9:53
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Benson – Holloway4:27
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid13:08
xG 0.82–0.86 (49%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Puljujarvi11:11
xG 0.16–0.47 (26%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Kostin9:13
xG 0.08–0.48 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse15:29
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Barrie – Kulak13:25
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Bouchard – Broberg10:39
xG 0.09–0.63 (13%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).