Sat, Dec 3, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 210 | 012 | 015 | 237 |
| OTT | 114 | 216 | 29 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:25OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P1 11:03SJSTomas HertlAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc · Snap, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 5:22OTTClaude GirouxUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 16:40OTTTim StützlePPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 5:18OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 15:45OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Tyler Motte · Slap, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:56OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:39SJSOskar Lindblom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:56SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:56OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:28OTTDrake Batherson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:48SJSRadim Simek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:45SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:47SJSJonah Gadjovich: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:13SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:14OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:54OTTAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:54SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:28OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich6:25
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier12:12
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov7:45
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Kunin – Gregor8:40
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSimek – Cicek9:26
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Megna14:14
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cicek2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle8:36
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto12:28
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly4:36
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Motte – Joseph – Gambrell7:56
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom12:14
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev16:22
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:07
xG 0.19–0.83 (18%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).