Sat, Dec 3, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Florida Panthers 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 216 | 12 | 210 | 528 |
| SEA | 015 | 113 | 08 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:00FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:26FLACarter VerhaeghePPGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 1:53SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 5:51FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 7:49FLAAleksi HeponiemiAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Lomberg · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 13:03FLAGustav ForslingPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Eetu Luostarinen · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:00SEADaniel Sprong: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 17:37SEAAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:24SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:24FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:24SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:29FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:46SEAAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:59FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Reinhart – Luostarinen14:19
xG 1.02–0.61 (62%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Staal – Lomberg – Heponiemi2:13
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:34
xG 1.05–0.75 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Hornqvist – Lomberg4:43
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:11
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Forsling – Mahura2:37
xG 0.31–0.08 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling6:22
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers10:53
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tanev8:53
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg12:41
xG 0.48–0.82 (37%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Donato – Sprong – Kuhlman6:02
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak12:45
xG 0.95–0.28 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen8:43
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen3:53
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).