Sat, Dec 3, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 2, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 115 | 05 | 19 | 229 |
| CGY | 114 | 114 | 38 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:03CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:26WSHConor ShearyPPAssists: Sonny Milano, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:35CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Adam Ruzicka · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:39CGYAdam RuzickaGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 14:34CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Dillon Dube, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 18:54WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Lars Eller, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 19:56CGYElias LindholmENAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.79 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:11CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:27CGYDillon Dube: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:25WSHNick Jensen: Interference2 min
- P3 5:27CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:41WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:40WSHAlexander Alexeyev: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:56CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Johansson – Mantha2:05
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas6:33
xG 0.17–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Milano8:17
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome7:10
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev8:43
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Carlson – van Riemsdyk3:09
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev3:54
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Ruzicka10:18
xG 0.85–0.21 (80%)attempts 21–7goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm10:48
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube12:16
xG 0.49–0.36 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Rooney7:28
xG 0.25–0.24 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar15:41
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:22
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Stone – Zadorov13:31
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).