Sun, Dec 4, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 118 | 15 | 07 | 230 |
| WPG | 07 | 215 | 318 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:16ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Frank Vatrano, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 5:09ANABrett LeasonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 10:31WPGSaku MaenalanenAssists: Nate Schmidt, Adam Lowry · Poke, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 13:28WPGDylan SambergAssists: Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 14:23WPGMorgan BarronGWGAssists: Adam Lowry, Saku Maenalanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 15:12WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:15WPGNate SchmidtPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:20ANAAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:59WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:13WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:33ANAMax Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20ANASimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:51WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:27ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Zegras8:16
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry2:19
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Regenda3:42
xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – McTavish2:21
xG 0.00–0.06 (1%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Fowler7:11
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Beaulieu5:23
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – White2:06
xG 0.13–0.13 (48%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Eyssimont5:49
xG 0.83–0.11 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti8:07
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Gagner – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson2:10
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois4:24
xG 0.11–0.06 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk9:05
xG 1.04–0.11 (91%)attempts 18–2goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg11:40
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Morrissey – Pionk4:00
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).