Sun, Dec 4, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 6, Dallas Stars 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 39 | 112 | 03 | 3 | 631 |
| DAL | 012 | 113 | 49 | 01 | 2 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:04MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:58DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 10:42MINConnor DewarSHAssists: Mason Shaw · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:17MINJake MiddletonAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Reaves · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 13:32MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 0:29MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 7:12DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 7:50DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 9:55DALMason MarchmentAssists: Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 17:49DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.15 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 3. DAL Joe Pavelski scored
- 4. MIN Kirill Kaprizov scored
- 5. DAL Roope Hintz stopped
- 6. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:45DALMiro Heiskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:37DALRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:33MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:53DALJoel Hanley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:09MINJake Middleton: Interference2 min
- P1 19:07MINJordan Greenway: Holding2 min
- P2 9:30MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:27MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:27DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:27DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy2:03
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Petan – Gaudreau – Boldy8:53
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:02
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel9:57
xG 0.28–0.89 (24%)attempts 6–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton11:52
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 3–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon2:30
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dumba – Middleton2:34
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Faksa – Marchment8:11
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Kiviranta4:25
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:30
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 2–2
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:13
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen16:41
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell13:31
xG 1.05–0.72 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Miller – Hanley6:14
xG 0.40–0.80 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).