Sun, Dec 4, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 111 | 111 | 435 |
| CBJ | 08 | 110 | 116 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34DETAustin CzarnikAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 17:36DETDominik KubalikPPAssists: Filip Hronek, David Perron · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 7:03DETLucas RaymondPPGWGAssists: Filip Hronek, David Perron · Slap, 0.24 xG3–0
- P2 16:10CBJMarcus BjorkPPAssists: Boone Jenner, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 1:58CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 6:08DETAndrew CoppAssists: Olli Maatta, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:08CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:45CBJMarcus Bjork: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:11CBJGavin Bayreuther: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:03CBJJack Roslovic: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:11DETOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:18DETDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:11CBJEgor Chinakhov: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:12DETPius Suter: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Larkin – Raymond10:46
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Czarnik – Veleno – Berggren9:04
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Rasmussen – Suter9:01
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Copp – Erne9:52
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hronek16:31
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Seider13:19
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Walman12:23
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Laine8:11
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Foudy – Chinakhov – Sillinger5:36
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Johnson4:21
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Meyer – Robinson5:06
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Christiansen8:31
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Peeke – Bjork2:37
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Peeke – Bayreuther8:05
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).