Mon, Dec 5, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 115 | 05 | 212 | 332 |
| PHI | 211 | 112 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50COLAlex NewhookPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:29PHITravis SanheimAssists: Scott Laughton, Zack MacEwen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 18:05PHITanner LaczynskiAssists: Joel Farabee, Patrick Brown · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 3:59PHITony DeAngeloPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 9:54PHIOwen TippettPPGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 17:47COLMikko RantanenAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:23COLAlex NewhookAssists: J.T. Compher, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:00PHITravis KonecnyENAssists: Kevin Hayes, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:33PHIKevin Hayes: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:30PHITanner Laczynski: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:01COLAlex Galchenyuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:47COLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:48PHITony DeAngelo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:10PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:47COLCale Makar: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHudon – Compher – Newhook2:48
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – MacKinnon – O'Connor2:10
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hudon – Rantanen – Newhook2:45
xG 0.03–0.04 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Megna – Blidh2:48
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Toews9:14
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Englund – MacDonald8:47
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard4:13
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee6:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – Laczynski3:35
xG 0.02–0.00 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Cates9:09
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Sedlak – Laughton – MacEwen8:18
xG 0.01–0.23 (6%)attempts 3–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Provorov12:39
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Braun – Sanheim13:26
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Seeler – DeAngelo12:28
xG 0.14–0.81 (15%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).