Mon, Dec 5, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 28 | 16 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 424 |
| BOS | 08 | 215 | 114 | 06 | 0 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36VGKPaul CotterAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:04VGKJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 0:51VGKPaul CotterAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 13:46BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brandon Carlo · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 19:35BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 3:08BOSTaylor HallPPAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 2. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
- 3. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 4. VGK Paul Cotter stopped
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 6. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 7. BOS Taylor Hall stopped
- 8. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 9. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 10. VGK Reilly Smith scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:53BOSBrad Marchand: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:11VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:26BOSTrent Frederic: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:05VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min
- P3 1:30VGKZach Whitecloud: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:18BOSTomas Nosek: Holding2 min
- OT 1:58VGKNicolas Roy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:30
xG 0.94–0.25 (79%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter12:37
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy4:30
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Leschyshyn7:03
xG 0.01–0.50 (2%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore16:33
xG 0.73–0.78 (48%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Hague – Miromanov11:26
xG 0.60–0.69 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud16:30
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Hall – Frederic6:16
xG 0.64–0.02 (98%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk7:50
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Coyle – Zacha – Frederic2:42
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak2:52
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo4:24
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Clifton3:14
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo8:14
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).