Tue, Dec 6, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 013 | 016 | 139 |
| PIT | 09 | 318 | 17 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:15PITBryan RustAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 2:02PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 10:14PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 16:33PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:04PITBrock McGinn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:01PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:50PITJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:29CBJMarcus Bjork: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:14CBJKirill Marchenko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 14:13CBJTim Berni: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 0:41CBJTim Berni: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:39PITJosh Archibald: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:45CBJGavin Bayreuther: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:20PITJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:12CBJGustav Nyquist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Chinakhov – Sillinger2:29
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Chinakhov – Sillinger3:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Roslovic – Johnson5:34
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson8:34
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni12:15
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Bjork11:31
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Peeke – Bayreuther9:43
xG 0.24–1.06 (19%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust6:45
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:34
xG 0.97–0.51 (65%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Heinen3:47
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen6:42
xG 0.18–0.47 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Rutta11:41
xG 0.94–0.63 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Joseph10:17
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Petry – Pettersson13:39
xG 0.72–0.97 (43%)attempts 15–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).