Tue, Dec 6, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 411 | 17 | 010 | 528 |
| OTT | 112 | 08 | 113 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35LAKMatt RoyAssists: Sean Durzi, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 2:15LAKMikey AndersonAssists: Blake Lizotte, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 5:14OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P1 8:43LAKViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: Trevor Moore, Sean Durzi · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P1 11:26LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 12:55LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 9:34OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.03 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:21LAKMatt Roy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:06OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:22LAKAlex Iafallo: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:04OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:31OTTErik Brannstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 8:28LAKAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:28LAKGabriel Vilardi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore10:52
xG 1.22–0.11 (92%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kaliyev12:21
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte8:02
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kempe – Vilardi – Iafallo9:41
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson19:31
xG 1.09–0.21 (84%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Edler – Walker12:12
xG 0.78–0.46 (63%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Durzi14:30
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:57
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Motte – Joseph9:18
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly8:26
xG 0.07–0.46 (13%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:15
xG 0.21–1.04 (17%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Zaitsev15:28
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:25
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Holden – Brannstrom15:26
xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).