Tue, Dec 6, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
St. Louis Blues 7, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 16 | 213 | 49 | 728 |
| NYI | 113 | 014 | 313 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:13STLJosh LeivoAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 17:52NYINoah DobsonAssists: Mathew Barzal, Oliver Wahlstrom · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 3:51STLIvan BarbashevAssists: William Bitten, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 14:58STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Josh Leivo, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 3:37STLNoel AcciariAssists: Justin Faulk, Nathan Walker · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 3:50STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 5:36NYIZach ParisePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 14:43NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Matt Martin, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 15:04NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 18:03STLRobert ThomasENAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.74 xG6–4
- P3 18:55STLNoel AcciariENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:37NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:16NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:33STLCalle Rosen: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:05STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Leivo12:16
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Saad – Barbashev – Bitten6:48
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas13:07
xG 0.72–1.53 (32%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Walker – Acciari7:17
xG 0.12–0.98 (11%)attempts 4–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Mikkola2:25
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola11:04
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Rosen14:15
xG 1.09–1.28 (46%)attempts 17–20goals 3–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Holmstrom9:08
xG 0.84–0.20 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier12:09
xG 0.91–0.50 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching10:24
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom10:32
xG 0.62–0.88 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:55
xG 1.34–0.29 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Pulock – Aho3:58
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Aho – Dobson11:55
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).