Tue, Dec 6, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 220 | 07 | 00 | 337 |
| ANA | 29 | 110 | 010 | 11 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 5:38CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Jack Drury, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 11:13ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 10:16CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 10:59ANABrett LeasonAssists: Mason McTavish, Max Jones · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 15:49CARJordan StaalAssists: Brent Burns, Jesper Fast · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 1:56ANARyan StromeGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:49ANASimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:47ANADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:30CARMartin Necas: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Necas – Jarvis14:38
xG 0.94–0.56 (63%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook12:53
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 1–2
- Teravainen – Svechnikov – Drury4:10
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Noesen – Drury4:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce18:45
xG 1.15–0.67 (63%)attempts 24–21goals 0–2
- de Haan – Chatfield9:35
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin17:17
xG 0.68–0.50 (57%)attempts 20–15goals 2–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Zegras8:18
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Strome – Vatrano4:18
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Comtois6:05
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Carrick – Terry – Comtois2:01
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Beaulieu7:42
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Fowler – White3:05
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:38
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).