Tue, Dec 6, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Montréal Canadiens 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 14 | 34 | 08 | 416 |
| SEA | 111 | 18 | 014 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:56MTLJohnathan KovacevicAssists: Mike Matheson, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 15:30SEAShane WrightAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:05MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:12MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Christian Dvorak, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 18:40MTLRem PitlickAssists: Joel Edmundson, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.22 xG4–1
- P2 19:59SEAJared McCannAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:02SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:43MTLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:48MTLChris Wideman: Interference2 min
- P2 8:22SEAVince Dunn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:04SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:51MTLMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:08SEAJamie Oleksiak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Slafkovský3:12
xG 0.13–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Dvorak – Slafkovský2:17
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Slafkovský2:50
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield11:10
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Harris – Xhekaj3:27
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Harris5:34
xG 0.12–0.35 (26%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Guhle15:59
xG 0.52–0.87 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Wright6:50
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Gourde – Tanev – Wright2:39
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg10:35
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers12:10
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:34
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Soucy – Borgen9:19
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Schultz – Oleksiak10:54
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).