Wed, Dec 7, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 112 | 311 | 427 |
| PHI | 17 | 08 | 015 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:46PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:51WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Dylan Strome, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 9:19WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: John Carlson, Erik Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:25WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Anthony Mantha, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
- P3 19:51WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.79 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:19WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:05PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:16WSHConor Sheary: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:33PHILukas Sedlak: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:49PHIZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:21PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01WSHErik Gustafsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:51PHITravis Konecny: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Sheary – Strome8:20
xG 0.87–0.17 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Eller – Johansson – Mantha9:50
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas8:16
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Milano9:39
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Gustafsson14:26
xG 1.07–0.63 (63%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Irwin – Alexeyev9:45
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk14:07
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost6:11
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen5:22
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Cates11:09
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Sedlak – Laughton – Farabee7:15
xG 0.37–0.61 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim10:16
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Seeler – DeAngelo13:34
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov12:01
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).