Wed, Dec 7, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 09 | 111 | 328 |
| CGY | 08 | 39 | 210 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 2:25MINMason ShawAssists: Connor Dewar, Jon Merrill · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 0:16CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 1:37CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 3:11CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 15:45MINJon MerrillAssists: Mason Shaw, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 15:57CGYRasmus AnderssonGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, Adam Ruzicka · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 18:50CGYTyler ToffoliENAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:23MINJon Merrill: Kneeing2 min
- P1 15:39MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:36MINJordan Greenway: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 2:38MINMathew Dumba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 7:38CGYDillon Dube: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:53CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:47CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:21MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P3 3:12MINMason Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:30CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Shaw – Dewar7:36
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Petan – Gaudreau – Boldy7:40
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel9:00
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek5:17
xG 0.03–0.00 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison8:15
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:23
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dumba13:28
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Ruzicka9:21
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm7:04
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube9:24
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie4:10
xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson12:06
xG 0.56–0.41 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Andersson2:07
xG 0.02–0.02 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tanev – Weegar11:47
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).